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Dollar Rising on Back of GDP and FOMC but Not Enough for Breakout

Dollar Rising on Back of GDP and FOMC but Not Enough for Breakout

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• Though 2Q US GDP may have fallen short of consensus, it was a strong rebound from 1Q with strong internals

• Between a Fed decision that held a previously hawkish course and rebound in the economy, USD has strengthened

• With data clearing, week and month-end in sight and summer trading on; range setups may play out better

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Dollar traders absorbed a back-to-back release of high profile event risk. Like the FOMC rate decision before it, there was an 'in-line' mentality that surrounded the 2Q US GDP release. The indicator may have fallen short of economists' forecasts; but it was also a robust recovery from the previous quarter, was founded on strong internal elements and represents a generally solid pace of economic activity. Taken alongside the Fed's policy tone - choosing not to deviate from a previously-set hawkish outlook - the fuse for a 2015 rate hike is burning. However, the combined event risk is not enough to fully override uncertainty and complacency which translates into hesitation in overtaking major USDollar resistance. We will see how strong the summer lull is through the final 24 hours of the trading week as data eases while the week and July close out with key levels still in sight. We take stock of the big moves and big levels in today's Trading Video.

USDOLLAR'S TOP DRIVERS: RATE FORECASTING AND RISK TRENDS

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