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Dollar and Euro May Struggle for Clear Trend, Risk Tension Climbing

Dollar and Euro May Struggle for Clear Trend, Risk Tension Climbing

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The Dollar rallied to close the week but debate over Fed forecasts will curb a lasting trend

• QE may keep the Euro under pressure long-term, but Greece uncertainty suppresses conviction on both sides

• Risk trends will open the week with a certain degree of tension and Kiwi traders should watch the RBNZ

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Both the Dollar and Euro crosses provided substantial volatility this past week. However, conviction - and the definitive trends it precipitates - was once again absent for each. That indecision for these most liquid currencies is unlikely to lift in the week ahead without a dramatic and wholly unscheduled development. On the Dollar's side, the fundamental volume of data is lowered ahead of the June 17 FOMC rate decision. A focus on stimulus for the Euro meanwhile is disrupted by the uncertainties surrounding the Greek negotiations. Un-anchored to events that can develop lasting moves; tempting setups from EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURGBP and others look far more dubious. With an air of caution and appreciation for scope of market activity in key themes, it is also important to look to key event risk for short-term volatility (such as the RBNZ for NZD) while also keeping track of risk trends with benchmarks like the S&P 500 testing its two-and-a-half year channel floor once again. We take full stock of the market in this weekend Strategy Video.

EURUSD Is Volatile, But Perhaps Not a Good Trend Candidate

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