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Video: Risk Reversal a Greater Danger Than Dollar Tumble Next Week

Video: Risk Reversal a Greater Danger Than Dollar Tumble Next Week

2015-04-17 22:46:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The USDollar held up its channel break this past week but the majors didn't run with the technical move

• High profile event risk for the Dollar (FOMC, US 1Q GDP) doesn't hit the wires for another week

• Meanwhile, equities are still at nosebleed levels, but fear is catching up to price levels

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Which represents the greater risk and opportunity in the week ahead: a Dollar or risk-based reversal? The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index held up its channel break this past week but the majors were slow to respond. Follow through on a technical and speculative basis for this prominent currency run is within the market's capacity; but the fundamental backdrop will not offer strong support and the move would likely be treated as a transitory correction. In contrast, the conditions for investor sentiment grow increasingly unstable while dependency rises. With the surge in Chinese markets - and the warning issued by the local regulator - only the most recent risk to arise, the potential fallout compensates for the modestly lower probability. In this weekend Trading Video, we discuss navigating Dollar and risk themes while also keeping an eye on areas not in the blast radius.

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