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Trading Video: FX Market Volatility Swells on Dovish Policy Developments

Trading Video: FX Market Volatility Swells on Dovish Policy Developments

2015-01-22 03:37:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The Canadian Dollar, Pound, Kiwi Dollar and Yen were all met by a surprise dovish shift in market view

• Ahead, the ECB decision is a critical event for the Euro, European markets and global financial system

• After the ECB, the market will debate whether the Fed can march towards a hike as the globe eases

NOTE: FXCM Inc, Parent Company of DailyFX, will raise margin requirements given volatility risk.

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There was a spat of monetary-policy based FX volatility this past session, and the amplitude is expected to be turned even higher with the ECB decision ahead. Wednesday, the Bank of Canada surprised the markets with a rate cut; the Bank of England's minutes showed dissenters calling for hikes were quieted; New Zealand inflation was taking the pressure out of rate hikes calls; and the Bank of Japan was potentially setting the stage for more QE down the line. The Loonie, Pound, Kiwi and Yen responded with different levels of conviction and intensity. However, as unexpected and market-moving as these events were, they pale in comparison to the potential of the upcoming ECB decision on whether or not to adopt QE. The Euro and Euro-area capital markets are in the direct line of fire, but the health of the global financial markets is a bigger picture factor investors should consider. Will a universal (with the exception of the Fed so far) dovish shift from central banks quell the rising tide of volatility? We discuss near-term event risk and its lasting fall out in today's Trading Video.

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