Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Primed – Levels to Know

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Primed – Levels to Know

What's on this page

Gold has continued to trade within a well-defined descending formation we’ve been tracking for months now with our immediate focus on a breakout of a multi-week range in price. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts heading into next week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

Gold Daily Price Chart

Gold Price Chart - Daily

Technical Outlook: Gold has continued to trade within a broad pitchfork formation extending off the yearly highs with price holding a well-defined range just below parallel resistance into the start of the month. The outlook remains unchanged from our previous Gold Price Technical Outlook where I noted that, “From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness while above the median-line at 1180.”

Bullion registered a low precisely at 1180.64 last week before rebounding with the monthly opening-range now taking shape below key slope resistance (blue). We’re looking for a breach / close above this threshold to validate that a more significant low was put in back in August. Note that daily RSI has been unable to clear 50 since the April sell-off and we’ll want to see a change in this behavior to offer further evidence of a shift in the momentum profile.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Gold 240min Price Chart

Gold Price Chart - 240min

Notes: A closer look at price action further highlights this multi-week range in gold. The focus is on a break of the 1180-1215 zone with a topside breach favored. A daily lose above would exposed subsequent topside resistance objectives at 1235/38- a region defined by the 100% extension of the advance off the yearly lows, the 38.2% retracement of the April decline and the December low lows- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

Initial support rests with the October open at 1191 backed by the trendline confluence just lower at ~1185. Bullish invalidation remains steady at 1180 with a break below the low-day close / 78.6% retracement at 1174 needed to mark resumption of the broader down-trend targeting the median-line at 1160.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: Gold prices are trading within a make-or-break range just below slope resistance to start the month & quarter- look for a break to offer guidance on our medium-term directional bias. That said, from a trading standpoint I’ll favor fading weakness while above 1180 with a breach / close above 1215 needed to validate the breakout. A break below 1174 would shift the focus back towards the yearly lows and subsequent slope support. October promises to be a volatile month for gold prices- buckle up!

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +5.73 (85.1% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are5.8% higher than yesterday and 9.8% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 11.5% lower than yesterday and 22.3% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. However, traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week andthe combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide !

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.