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Precious Metals Charts – Gold Back to Support, Silver Breakdown?

Precious Metals Charts – Gold Back to Support, Silver Breakdown?

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Gold/silver technical highlights:

  • Gold range-trading continues, support may be back in play
  • Silver trading towards confluence of support, but may not hold

See what factors are expected to drive Gold this quarter in the DailyFX Q2 Forecasts.

Gold range-trading continues, support may be back in play

No pun intended (yes intended), gold is heavy again, however; the range it’s been stuck in year-to-date has made trading difficult. It’s a market to generally avoid unless trading at the perimeters of the range (buying support, selling resistance).

Currently, gold is sitting close to the middle of the range, presenting poor risk/reward for either side of the tape. There is a trend-line running just below, but it lies within the middle of the range and not far away from the pesky 2013 trend-line which keeps capping advances on a weekly closing basis. Again, risk/reward not favorable.

A break of the trend-line, however, could bring into play a big area of support in the vicinity of 1310/03. This has been a very active reaction zone with its beginnings dating back to October. A drop and turn in momentum from support (bottom of the range) may offer traders another opportunity for a range-fade.

Should it break, though, then look for acceleration as the ongoing range at some point is set to lead to a sizable move. This goes for the upside, maybe even more-so, given it would also constitute a significant break of the 2013 trend-line.

Traders remain long gold, check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how this acts as a contrarian indicator.

Gold Daily Chart (range persists)

Gold daily price chart, in the middle of the range currently

Gold Weekly Chart (2013 trend-line keeps a lid on it)

Gold weekly price chart, 2013 trend-line and range outlined

Silver trading towards confluence of support, but can it hold?

Silver is stuck in its own, narrower, downward sloping trading range. The channel is marked by lower-lows and lower-highs, which hints at the possibility of seeing a downside break develop. There is good support by way of the lower parallel in confluence with the July trend-line, but if gold trades back to the low-end of its trading range we might see a breakdown. If that happens, look for the December low at 15.62 as the next level of support.

But before we jump the gun on shorts, waiting for a break is the prudent approach. Support will be respected for as long as it holds, and if buyers show up upon a test it may offer would-be longs a low-risk spot to enter with stops set below support.

Silver Daily Chart (bearish channel, confluence of support)

Silver daily price chart, bearish channel, confluence of support below

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.