Talking Points
- Activity is low ahead of crucial Fed rate meeting.
- Silver prices remain trapped between last week’s low of $15.16 and this week’s high of $15.83.
- FOMC: focus will probably be on hints of an April or June rate hike.
Trading is muted ahead of today’s Fed rate meeting and silver prices remain trapped between last week’s low of $15.16 and this week’s high of $15.83.
Key U.S. data will likely be the Inflation Report and Industrial Production figures which are on deck today and may trigger volatility, potentially creating a break to the current silver price range of $15.16-$15.83.
If this is not enough, then the Fed rate meeting outcome at 18:00 GMT, or the following press conference at 18:30 GMT may well do the trick.
Per the Fed funds’ futures contract, there is only a 2% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates, while 93 out of 97 economists in a Bloomberg poll expect them to remain unchanged at 0.5%.
Instead traders will scrutinize the statement and the press conference for hints of an April or June rate hike. The Fed funds’ futures are giving a 25.1% likelihood of a rate hike in April, followed by a 53.6% probability in June.
If last week’s low of $15.16 holds as a support, then silver may try to recuperate the last 48 hours of losses and possibly reach the high of $15.83. On a successful slide below last week’s low of $15.16, prices may reach the March 3 low of $14.87 followed by the January 29 low of $14.63.
See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold
Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano
--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00
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