News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate (NOV) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.1% Previous: 4.9%
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change (DEC) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 35K Previous: 64.3K
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Average Earnings incl. Bonus (NOV) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 2.9% Previous: 2.7%
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (NOV) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.2% Previous: 2.8%
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Employment Change (OCT) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -100K Previous: -144K
  • (ASEAN Fundy) US Dollar Forecast: Stuck Between Treasuries, Equities as Emerging Markets Push On $USDSGD $USDTWD $USDPHP #EmergingMarkets #ASEAN
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 68.42%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.08% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.08% Germany 30: -0.06% France 40: -0.14% Wall Street: -0.52% US 500: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via
  • Want to make trading decisions with confidence? Download you free guide to avoid hesitations in your trading decisions. #DailyFXGuides
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: A Technical Tipping Point

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: A Technical Tipping Point

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

The price of WTI Crude Oil has moved close to the opening range high of 2016 at $38.36. Looking at the global counterpart to WTI Crude Oil of ICE Brent Crude, it is up ~10% on the year after hitting 12+ year lows in early February. Now, on the back of weakening US Dollar, the metals, and energy markets are overwhelmingly in the positive for the year with Gold up nearly 20%.

Amazingly, the move higher in US Oil from 26.03 on February 11 is now within a whisper of the January 4 Opening Range high of $38.36 in less than a month’s worth of trading days. However, as you can see on the chart, this move may be the toughest yet for the Bullsto push through. Another component of the recent rally that many in the mainstreamare likely not aware of is the positioning change that is aligning with equities. Recently, there has been a new wave of speculative longs come into the market that has recently been absent that could extend this move higher still. The commitment of traders reports recently showed bullish positioning in ICE Brent Crude as the dominant new position being taken.

WTI Crude Oil Bull Rushes Into the 2016 Opening Range High of $38.36/bbl

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: A Technical Tipping Point

Key Oil Price Levels from Here

Given the strength of the recent move from the February 11 low, we now look to recent resistance points now acting as new potential support. The late January high of 34.79 and 38.2% of the October-January range at 35.53 will be a good pivotal support from here.

The obvious resistance point to watch sits at the Opening Range high of $38.36. Beyond this heavy zone to break is a combination of the 61.8% retracement of the same range and a prior corrective zone on the way down that tends to be a valuable resistance point on the way up.

Contrarian System Warns of Further Price Support

In addition to the technical focus around the opening range high resistance of $38.36, we should keep an eye on Bears having their stops taken out of the market pushing the price of Oil higher. A move into new highs aligns with our Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI.

Our internal readings of Oil are showing an SSI reading of-1.4686. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders have moved from net long to now net short provides a contrarian signal that US Oil may continue eventually higher through resistance. If the reading were to turn positive yet again, and the price broke back below $32/30, we could begin looking for a retest of the YTD low of $26.03. Until then, higher looks to be the path of least resistance.


Looking For Short-Term Oil Trading Opportunities? Trade Oil With Low Margin Requirements (non-US Residents only)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.