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USD/CHF Technical Analysis:  Franc Forges Ahead, But Short Setup Not Yet Ready

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Franc Forges Ahead, But Short Setup Not Yet Ready

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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Talking Points:

  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Pending Short
  • USD/CHF respected the higher-low carved out earlier in the week, but lack of sellers to drive the pair below support leaves the short setup un-triggered.
  • Breaks below .9681 could open the door for short positions.

The Swiss Franc has continued to respect the lower-high discussed in yesterday’s piece, with resistance coming in over the past four trading days at .9781, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2015 high/low. Each of the last four days has seen a daily wick intersecting with this level, but sellers have come in aggressively to sell this rip, thereby confirming the lower-high that’s been seen in the USD/CHF pair.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the ‘big picture’ move (shown in green on the below chart) is providing current support at .9681, and this is the level that could prove attractive should price action find the momentum to break through. This level had also provided resistance two weeks ago as the USD/CHF was trading higher, and if this support yields traders can look for the opposite effect before entering the position. Let price break support, and then wait for resistance to show in the .9681 zone before triggering the short position. This could allow an attractive risk-reward ratio with stops above the recent lower-high, and targets cast towards .9500 and then .9270.

On the other hand, concerted breaks above .9800 could make this near-term rip look more promising for a bigger-picture up-trend, and should the resistance trend-line (shown in red) yield to surging prices, a bullish stance may be established next week.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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