News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.61% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.64% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/UMdcR4ZNnz
  • Canadian ban on passenger flights arriving from India and Pakistan will last for 30 days - Reuters via BBG $CAD
  • Lumber has seen a meteoric rise over the last year, as demand for new homes remains strong and bottlenecks arising from COVID shutdowns continue to weigh on supply https://t.co/de4xc0t1BA
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.49% Gold: -0.57% Silver: -1.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/PvKjoyExIZ
  • Seasonal $USD performance over the last 10 years $USD $DXY https://t.co/X23oLOxewZ
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tCamGDogVf
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.49%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 69.49%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SAhyfFIUX0
  • Intel upside remains constrained by chip shortages and supply chain disruptions - CEO
  • Intel Q1 Earnings: Revs: $19.67B vs. est. $17.86B EPS: $1.39 vs. est. $1.15 $INTC
  • Gold Price Outlook: Are Gold Bulls Back in the Driver's Seat? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2021/04/22/gold-price-outlook-are-gold-bulls-back-in-the-drivers-seat.html $Gold
CAD Longs Get Nervous After Weak Data Dump Ahead of BoC

CAD Longs Get Nervous After Weak Data Dump Ahead of BoC

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

  • USD/CAD Technical Strategy: strong resistance at 1.2778, awaiting sell opportunities
  • Option activity showing highest premium for protection against further CAD losses
  • Sentiment Highlight: absolute bullish retail bias on USD/CAD favors downside

The Canadian Dollar has traded to seven-week lows, and insight from the options market ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting may show the selling will continue.

The rising USD/CAD is lining up with a market expecting a more hawkish-then-Yellen Fed chair to be shortly named by US President Trump while the BoC looks to be playing defense. After a mid-year transformation to a tightening central bank, the Bank of Canada has recently called themselves unwilling to ‘hike blindly’ and remain ‘data-dependent.’ Almost on cue, Canadian economic data and expectations for future BoC hikes have begun to falter.

The odds of an October 25 hike by the BoC have fallen from 55% in mid-September to 17% and are heading lower. Similarly, the odds of some additional form of BoC tightening has fallen from 80% in early September to 41% as of October 23, and a failure to hike, plus a recognition of weakening CA data could pull the odds and the conversion rate of CAD down further.

The technical outlook is focusing on further rises against the broader downtrend that began in early May. Given the weakness of the Canadian Dollar, strength would need to develop that takes USD/CAD below the October low (1.2433) before expectations of CAD momentum are well founded. Until then, traders should keep an eye on daily closes above the 1.2433 area to favor a march toward 1.2723-78 zone (38.2% retracement of May-Sept. range, Aug 15 high.)

Unlock our Q4 forecast to learn what will drive trends for the US Dollar through year-end!

CAD Longs Get Nervous After Weak Data Dump Ahead of BoC

Chart created by Tyler Yell, CMT. Tweet @ForexYell for comments, questions

USD/CAD Insight from IG Client Positioning: absolute bullish retail bias on USD/CAD favors downside

The sentiment highlight section is designed to help you see how DailyFX utilizes the insights derived from IG Client Sentiment, and how client positioning can lead to trade ideas. If you have any questions on this indicator, you are welcome to reach out to the author of this article with questions at tyell@dailyfx.com.

CAD Longs Get Nervous After Weak Data Dump Ahead of BoC

USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 56.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.3 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 13.7% higher than yesterday and 18.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.1% higher than yesterday and 18.8% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bearish contrarian trading bias (emphasis added.)

---

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES