News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET on DailyFX!
  • (Weekly Fundy) Crude Oil May Rise as Covid Case Growth Slows. WTI Eyes OPEC Outlook, Evergrande #CrudeOil #WTI #OPEC #Evergrande
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here:
  • We are heading into the final trading days for the month of September and event risk thins out amid the $SPX's rebound. This is what history says for the 39th week of the year and here is my take on the variable factors:
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on AUD with our free guide, available today:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here:
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • Short-term uncertainties to keep the pressure on equity markets. Get your weekly equities forecast from @JMcQueenFX here:
Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Retreats Ahead of FOMC And NFP

Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Retreats Ahead of FOMC And NFP

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Dollar Technical Strategy: Pullback from March High Puts Focus On Corrective Channel
  • One and Done View Puts Focus On DXY Strength Outside of US
  • Options Market Awaiting USD Downside, EUR upside

The market is wildly optimistic about a Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 14 policy meeting. The meeting standing between today and December 14 takes place this Wednesday, and its proximity to the U.S. Presidential Elections as well as the lack of a post-FOMC press conference has traders looking past this meeting to get to the next.

Access Our Free Q4 Dollar Outlook As The Fed Appears Cornered Regarding Effective Monetary Policy

As we wind down 2016 FOMC meetings, traders are likely to see any hike met with rather dovish language as we head into 2017. The infamous ‘dot plot’ currently has a wide spread of 150bps. However, the most recent dissenters that anticipated the need to hike at the last Fed meeting will not be voting in 2017. The dissenters who were relatively hawkish will be replaced with perceivably more dovish members like Neel Kashkari, ‎President/CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Charles Evans, Chicago Fed President and Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President/CEO.

The impending shift to a more dovish set of voting Fed members in 2017 aligns with a development in the options market. Per Bloomberg, for the first time since May, EUR/USD calls are trading at a premium to puts as 1M risk-reversals have flipped positive. Additionally, the March 01 closing low of 1.0865 appears to be strong support for EUR/USD given the price action last week that resulted in a sharp move higher toward 1.1000.

H4 DXY Index Chart / Corrective Channel In Focus Ahead of Fed

Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Retreats Ahead of FOMC And NFP

The chart above shows the sharp ascent of DXY from mid-September. There are two trend following indicators worth watching on this chart, Andrew’s Pitchfork & the H4 Ichimoku Cloud. When the price is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud that shows that the path of least resistance is higher. You can see that price is putting pressure on the Cloud and breakdown from this level could easily open up a larger move toward the 38.2% retracement of the September-October zone at 97.50.

Andrew’s Pitchfork also does a fine job of framing price action, and a break of the channel would also result in a break of the Ichimoku cloud, which would turn the bias Bearish.

The price channel that DXY has carved out gives us a helpful road map to wait for a bullish reversal. The series of lower lows and lower highs should be watched, because if the price is unable to break the lower-highs at 98.69 and 99.01, there is little reason to fight the trend.

As noted above, there could be a fundamental shift developing with Fed voting members after the “priced-in” hike in December and the options market is now favoring more DXY weakness than that of the largest counterpart in the DXY, the EUR.

Shorter-Term DXY Technical Levels for Monday, October 31, 2016

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Retreats Ahead of FOMC And NFP


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.