News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/j5okcbiqLG
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) due at 06:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.9% Previous: -7.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) due at 06:45 GMT (15min) Expected: -3.3% Previous: -8.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
  • 🇷🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI (NOV) Actual: 46.3 Previous: 46.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
  • Gold prices appear to have fallen to oversold territory and may look for a technical rebound. An immediate support level can be found at US$ 1,750. https://t.co/kpHCe2aLth
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI (NOV) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 46.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-01
  • I mentioned before, but so far, the average seasonality for the $SPX is aligning to 2020's top months (April then November). This - along with record highs - will likely feed expectations for December: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/12/01/Dow-and-Dollar-Enter-December-with-Technical-Breaks-and-Temptation-.html https://t.co/5uICTgtHoA
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.17%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/HUeuen6CZW
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.33% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.31% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.26% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/haJtgLdWR1
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.86% Wall Street: 0.81% Germany 30: 0.50% FTSE 100: 0.13% France 40: 0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/X0IBWDdCcR
US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

2016-04-18 19:45:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

-US Dollar Technical Strategy: Short Bias Favored Below 11,918

-21-DMA Continues To Act As Firm Resistance on Move Lower

-Macro Environment Shifting To a Dollar Negative Story

Out of the G10, the US Dollar remains the weakest currency. The weakness is relative and is based on the current positioning of individual currencies against other G10 pairs on a four-hour chart against a 200-Period Moving Average. One thing the weakness does favor is not buying the US Dollar because across the board, it is weak and continues to get weaker.

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

As you can see above, the strong/ weak trade as of April 18 is buying AUD/USD. While this is not a trade recommendation, it is along the lines of favoring trend continuation as bullish momentum begets bullish momentum and bearish momentum begets bearish momentum. From a Technical Analysis perspective, the US Dollar continues to fall through support and is currently sitting above thin, albeit important support of last week’s low of 11,809.

Key Levels From Here

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

On the chart above, where you can see the 2016 high at the top left, the US Dollar appears wholly unable to hold a bid or gain bullish momentum on a temporal bounce. Given that US Dollar is lowest on the totem poll of G10 relative strength, it is appropriate to keep an eye on resistance breaking before considering hitting the bid.

Regardingappropriate Technical Resistance;last week’s high (identified with a Daily Up-Fractal) and the 21-DMA are currently around are 11,908/18. Until we get a break above this area, the weakest US Dollar will continue to favor the downside. This environment favors selling moves into resistance as it has since late-February.

Longer-Term US Dollar Chart Going Back to Early 2015

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

Worth noting on the chart above is that the recent support, around 11,809/13 aligns with a sliding parallel and the 61.8% extension of the original downmove that took place over the first half of February. A 61.8% extension beyond the first corrective move extreme can be a favorable target or pivot. Also, if price turns higher off that level and subsequently breaks above the levels mentioned above, 11,918/08, we could be seeing one of the first favorable US Dollar long environment since late February, which eventually went the way of the Dollar Bears. Absent those events, buying the US Dollar remains a risky move per Technical Analysis.

Shorter-Term US Dollar Technical Levels

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

Interested In our Analyst’s Longer-Term Dollar Outlook? Pleasesign up for our free dollar guide here.

T.Y.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES