News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • (AUD Weekly Tech) Australian Dollar May Wilt, Downtrends Resume: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here:
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today:
  • Scoping out next week for trading the market, there are a range of high profile influences including September PMIs, Evergrande and a range of central bank decisions. Top listing on my docket is the #FOMC with my scenarios below. Full analysis:
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here:
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

-US Dollar Technical Strategy: Short Bias Favored Below 11,918

-21-DMA Continues To Act As Firm Resistance on Move Lower

-Macro Environment Shifting To a Dollar Negative Story

Out of the G10, the US Dollar remains the weakest currency. The weakness is relative and is based on the current positioning of individual currencies against other G10 pairs on a four-hour chart against a 200-Period Moving Average. One thing the weakness does favor is not buying the US Dollar because across the board, it is weak and continues to get weaker.

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

As you can see above, the strong/ weak trade as of April 18 is buying AUD/USD. While this is not a trade recommendation, it is along the lines of favoring trend continuation as bullish momentum begets bullish momentum and bearish momentum begets bearish momentum. From a Technical Analysis perspective, the US Dollar continues to fall through support and is currently sitting above thin, albeit important support of last week’s low of 11,809.

Key Levels From Here

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

On the chart above, where you can see the 2016 high at the top left, the US Dollar appears wholly unable to hold a bid or gain bullish momentum on a temporal bounce. Given that US Dollar is lowest on the totem poll of G10 relative strength, it is appropriate to keep an eye on resistance breaking before considering hitting the bid.

Regardingappropriate Technical Resistance;last week’s high (identified with a Daily Up-Fractal) and the 21-DMA are currently around are 11,908/18. Until we get a break above this area, the weakest US Dollar will continue to favor the downside. This environment favors selling moves into resistance as it has since late-February.

Longer-Term US Dollar Chart Going Back to Early 2015

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

Worth noting on the chart above is that the recent support, around 11,809/13 aligns with a sliding parallel and the 61.8% extension of the original downmove that took place over the first half of February. A 61.8% extension beyond the first corrective move extreme can be a favorable target or pivot. Also, if price turns higher off that level and subsequently breaks above the levels mentioned above, 11,918/08, we could be seeing one of the first favorable US Dollar long environment since late February, which eventually went the way of the Dollar Bears. Absent those events, buying the US Dollar remains a risky move per Technical Analysis.

Shorter-Term US Dollar Technical Levels

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Retesting 2016 Lows

Interested In our Analyst’s Longer-Term Dollar Outlook? Pleasesign up for our free dollar guide here.


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.