Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Upswing Eyes Resistance Below 0.61

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Upswing Eyes Resistance Below 0.61

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • New Zealand Dollar eyes resistance below 0.61 again as prices rebound
  • 4-hour chart shows negative RSI divergence, warns upswing may fizzle
  • Trader sentiment studies tip bearish bias, but a pivot might be brewing

The New Zealand Dollar attempted to extend lower against its US counterpart after producing a somewhat rare Three Black Crows candlestick pattern (as expected). The move was cut short near support marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.5833 however, giving way to recovery that has brought the pair back toward its near-term swing high at 0.6069.

This is a pivotal juncture. Breaking above it with confirmation on a daily closing would invalidate the latest attempt at downtrend resumption. Extension upward to retest support-turned-resistance in the 0.6197-0.6245 zone may follow. Alternatively, a turn back lower that brings NZD/USD below 0.5833 probably sees the next inflection point at 0.5690, the 38.2% Fib level.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

NZD/USD daily chart created using TradingView

The latter scenario finds some support in near-term positioning. The four-hour chart reveals negative RSI divergence as prices hover near resistance, hinting at ebbing upside momentum. That may set the stage for a downturn, although making the case for follow-through probably calls for a break of rising trend line support guiding the upswing over the past week.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

NZD/USD 4-hour chart created using TradingView

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide


Retail sentiment data shows 54.48% of traders are net-long, with the long-to-short ratio at 1.20 to 1. IG Client Sentiment(IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, soretail traders being net-long suggests that NZD/USD is biased downward. The skew has narrowed a bit over the past day however. Continued evolution in this direction over the coming days may suggest that a pivot in the trend is brewing.

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.