News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Sources close to the Chinese Government have told Asia Markets a deal that will see China Evergrande (3333 HK) restructured into three seperate entities is currently being finalised by the Chinese Communist Party and could be announced within days.
  • Shadow MPC as hawkish as ever - They have been calling for the BoE to end QE early since June - Often a big difference in what people think a central bank should do and will do https://t.co/RAakSI8gI6
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/XfrcQXJu0Z
  • IFO lowers German 2021 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.3% - Raises 2022 forecast to 5.1% from 4.3%
  • 🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) Actual: 4.9% Expected: 4.8% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • 🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) Actual: 4.08% Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.8% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • ECB's Muller - ECB to discuss raising regular QE when PEPP ends $EUR
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce From 3-Year Low

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce From 3-Year Low

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Euro digesting losses at three-year lows above 1.06 figure
  • Positive RSI divergence hints a rebound may be due ahead
  • Trader sentiment studies send mixed EUR/USD message

The Euro has paused to consolidate recent losses against the US Dollar having landed atop support at 1.0652, the 78.6% Fibonacci expansion. Bearish resumption from here with a break below support confirmed on a daily closing basis may clear the way to challenge the 100% level at 1.0422.

A dense block of resistance stands in the way of any would-be forays to the upside. The first hurdle of note is the 1.0783-1.0880 area, marked by a price inflection region dating back about three years. Above that, prior levels of support recast resistance run back-to-back toward the 1.12 figure.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

EUR/USD daily chart created with TradingView

Nevertheless, zooming into the 4-hour chart suggests a bounce may be attempted all the same. The appearance of positive RSI divergence suggests downside momentum is ebbing, which may set the stage a bounce. Anything more than a correction will need to decisively clear falling trend line resistance however.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce From 3-Year Low

EUR/USD 4-hour chart created with TradingView

EUR/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

Euro vs US Dollar price, retail trader sentiment

Retail positioning data shows 53.60% of traders are net-long, with the long-to-short ratio at 1.16 to 1. IG Client Sentiment(IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, sothe net-longskew in tradersexposure suggests that EUR/USD is likely to trade lower.

However, positioning has become less tilted to the long side compared with the prior session even as it has grown by 19.6% percent relative to a week before. These mixed messages make for a clouded sentiment-based outlook, at least for the time being.

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

EUR/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES