EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH
- Euro challenging 3-month trend support, break may restart downtrend
- Past trend dynamics imply drop toward 1.07 if selling pressure prevails
- Dense near-term resistance presents challenge for attempted recovery
The Euro finds itself at a decisive spot, sitting squarely at support guiding the upswing over the past three months. A break below it and the 1.1069-1.1104 congestion area would suggest the dominant downtrend has been resumed. The first layer of support thereafter lines up in the 1.0968-90 zone, followed by the October 1 swing low at 1.0879.
EUR/USD daily chart created with TradingView
That may be just the beginning however. Pulling back to the weekly chart offers a sense of what might follow if a break of support sees the downtrend re-engaged. The dynamics of the decline since mid-2018 imply an average downswing of 4.6 percent. Such a move would put the single currency just above the 1.07 figure, amounting to the lowest level since April 2017.
EUR/USD weekly chart created with TradingView
Zooming in to the four-hour chart reveals prices are retesting support-turned-resistance at 1.1123 having found interim support just below the 1.11 figure. Neutralizing immediate selling pressure in earnest looks challenging however. EUR/USD will need to reclaim a foothold above recently-broken trend support guiding December’s rally as well as a falling resistance line defining 2020 trade thus far.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart created with TradingView
EUR/USD TRADER SENTIMENT
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 5% | -1% | 3% |
| Weekly | -7% | 23% | 4% |
EUR/USD TRADING RESOURCES
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
