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Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Euro shows signs of on-coming downturn near 1.23 figure vs. US Dollar
- Further confirmation of reversal needed before short trade is actionable
Euro technical positioning is warning of a turn lower against the US Dollar once again after the single currency rose to the strongest level since December 2014. Negative RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum andthe appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern may precede a top.
Near-term support comes in at 1.2164, the January 18 low, with a break below that opening the door for a retest of former resistance marked by the September 8 high at 1.2092. Alternatively, a push above the January 17 high at 1.2323 clears the way for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2458.
A turn lower here would be consistent with clues seen in longer-term positioning but further confirmation is necessary before a short position looks actionable. Specifically, a break of the near-term series of higher highs and lows would signal a change of dominant bias. In the meantime, staying flat seems prudent.
What will drive the EUR/USD trend in the first quarter? See our forecast here !
