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Talking Points:
- EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Euro aims above 1.24 after breaking yet another chart resistance level
- Conflicting cues argue against taking long or short position at this time
The Euro has soared to the highest level in over three years against the US Dollar, with a break past yet another layer of chart resistance hinting the move upward will continue. Prices pulled back after showing a bearish candlestick pattern as expected but the move quickly turned follow a hawkish ECB meeting minutes.
From here, a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2430 opens the door for a challenge of the 61.8% level at 1.2637. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 1.2223 paves the way for a retest of resistance-turned-support at 1.2092, the September 8 high.
Standing aside seems prudent for now. Longer-term positioning shows the Euro entering a critical resistance zone, arguing against chasing the currency upward. On the other hand, the absence of a clear-cut bearish reversal signal means that entering short is premature, especially given recent bullish momentum.
What will drive the EUR/USD trend in the first quarter? See our forecast here !
