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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Larger Rebound Hinted Ahead

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Larger Rebound Hinted Ahead

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Euro Edging Higher as Expected After Finding Support Above 1.06 Figure vs. US Dollar
  • Looking to Enter Short in Line with Dominant Down Trend Following Corrective Upswing

The Euro moved higher against the US Dollar as expected, with a break above trend line resistance set from mid-October hinting that a larger recovery may be ahead. The dominant long-term down trend continues to favor the downside however, painting any on-coming gains as corrective.

A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0745 exposes a key barrier in the 1.0818-24 area marked by double bottom support-turned-resistance and reinforced by the 23.6% level. Alternatively, a push below the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1.0637 clears the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 1.0517.

We are keen to enter short EUR/USD and take part in continuation of the multi-year decline once again. With that in mind, we will look to any move higher from here as an opportunity to sell the pair once whatever retracement materializes runs out of steam.

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