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Stocks in Australia Look To Jackson Hole To Decide Near-Term Path

Stocks in Australia Look To Jackson Hole To Decide Near-Term Path

David Cottle, Analyst

ASX 200 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • The ASX 200 has bounced at retracement support
  • However, a former trading range now presents formidable resistance
  • This week could bring clues as to which will be revisited

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The ASX 200 offers a fair representation of most pro-cyclical assets right now- way off recent, often record highs but consolidating within striking range of them nonetheless, albeit with a lurking downside bias.

You can see modest variations of this theme pretty much anywhere you care to look across the growth-sensitive, ‘risk on’ spectrum right now, with the Nikkei 225 and AUDUSD offering broadly similar daily charts.

Fundamentally speaking all this lot have been hammered by the perceived growth of trade and recession risk, then placated by hopes that plentiful government stimulus will be coming as a result. Now they’re essentially hunkered down, probably to await the pronouncements of central bankers in Jackson Hole this week.

Technically speaking the ASX bounced earlier this month very close to the second, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rise up from the lows of January 4 to the record peaks scaled in July.

ASX 200, Daily Chart

This point now remains as quite important near-term support, and bulls would appear to have reason for hope for as long as it holds up the market on a daily closing basis. A month-end close above it might be even more supportive, something to bear in mind as August bows out.

The index could be bound for much more dangerous territory should it give way, however. It remains to be seen how the market will take any foray closer to the psychologically crucial 6000 level. History suggests that ‘not well’ is the all-too-likely answer.

To the upside, as with other, similar assets, ASX 200 bulls have yet to make good the sharp fall seen in late July and early August. If they’re even going to try they’ll need to push the index back into the broad trading band which pertained between June 19 and July 24. You can see it in red on the chart above. It proved to be the launchpad for that record high, now it forms important resistance to another attempt.

With the Jackson Hole get together just a day away from starting, the uncommitted may be well advised to wait and see what impetus it gives. Signs of willingness to significantly boost stimulus could see that former trading range regained to the upside. Gloom and monetary circumspection on the other hand could mean big trouble for the ASX and all of its ‘partners in risk.’

ASX 200 Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.