AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
- Australian Dollar rejected at April’s swing top resistance
- Double Top formation might precede downtrend resumption
- Trader sentiment studies argue in favor of AUD/USD gains
The Australian Dollar recoiled from resistance at 0.6570, the April swing top capping a spirited recovery from late-March lows, at least so far. Seen in the context of the break through rising trend line support at the beginning of the month, the rejection may amount to the end of a corrective upswing, of the kind that often follow a breakout. The onset downtrend resumption may now be in cards.
Confirming as much probably requires a daily close below the 0.6214-54 inflection area. A daily close under that looks likely to set the stage for a test below the 0.60 figure. Alternatively, establishing a foothold back above 0.6570 may defuse near-term selling pressure. From there, revisiting support-turned-resistance in the 0.6671-90 zone looks likely.
AUD/USD daily chart created with TradingView
AUD/USD TRADER SENTIMENT
Retail sentiment data shows 63.79% of traders are net-short, with the short-to-long ratio at 1.76 to 1. IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, so traders being net-short suggests AUD/USD is biased upward. The net-short skew has widened relative to yesterday and compared with last week, which may imply strengthening upward momentum.
See the full IGCS sentiment report here.
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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