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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Dollar Selloff May Continue

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Dollar Selloff May Continue

2020-02-21 04:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

  • Australian Dollar down to 11-year low after range support break
  • Break into upper 0.67s likely needed to neutralize selling pressure
  • Retail sentiment studies favor downside, near-term view clouded

The Australian Dollar has capitulated after a consolidative pause, as expected. The currency found interim support in the 0.6671-90 area – a range floor in play since early August – and briefly looked as though it may attempt a corrective bounce. That was not to be as prices plunged to an 11-year low.

From here, a daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6608 may set the stage for a test of the 0.6550-64 area (50% level, November 2008 monthly close). Breaking back above falling trend line resistance in play since the start of 2020 is probably a prerequisite to neutralizing near-term selling pressure.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

AUD/USD daily chart created with TradingView

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AUD/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

Chart of Australian Dollar vs US Dollar excahnge rate, retail trader sentiment

Retail trader data shows 75.22% of traders are net-long, with the long-to-short ratio at 3.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.39% higher than yesterday and 8.29% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.45% higher than yesterday and 13.83% lower from last week.

IG Client Sentiment(IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, so traders being net-long suggests AUD/USD may continue to fall.Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more so than last week. This makes for a clouded sentiment-basedtrading bias.

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

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AUD/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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