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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Australian Dollar looking for direction at trend-defining support level
  • Inconclusive chart positioning argues against taking a trade for now

The Australian Dollar has dropped to a four-month low against its US counterpart but sellers are struggling to make continued progress having met critical chart support. A rebound here might be the first step toward showing that losses since early September are corrective in the context of a longer-term advance.

Critical support is at 0.7655 (61.8% Fibonacci expansion, former trend line resistance set from April 2016). Breaching this would invalidate July’s upside breakout, initially exposing the 76.4% level at 0.7598. Alternatively, a close above the 50% Fib at 0.7702 targets the 38.2% expansion at 0.7748.

An actionable trade setup seems to be absent. Prices are probing above range resistance but confirmation of a break is absent, arguing against taking up the long side. Entering short appears to be likewise unattractive absent clear-cut evidence of bearish conviction. Opting for the sidelines is probably best for now.

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about coming AUD/USD moves? Find out here!

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: All Eyes on Trend-Defining Support