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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Struggling to Build on Upside Break

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Struggling to Build on Upside Break

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar struggling to make good on bullish breakout vs US cousin
  • Inconclusive technical positioning argues against open exposure for now

The Australian Dollar has struggled to build upside momentum against its US counterpart since bouncing from rising trend support set from May/June lows. Prices seemingly completed a bullish Flag continuation pattern but have been unable even to retest the prior swing high, much less to overcome it.

Resistance is at 0.7979, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door to challenge the 0.8066-87 area (July 27 high, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a turn below trend line support, now at 0.7859, exposes the 0.7784-0.7805 zone (38.2% Fib retracement, August 15 low) anew.

Current positioning doesn’t seem to offer an actionable trade setup. On one hand, the absence of follow-through casts doubt on the Aussie’s bullish aspirations. On the other, the trend-defining series of higher highs and lows carved out over the past two months remains intact. Standing aside seems prudent for now.

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