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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 0.81?

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 0.81?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar edges past near-term range floor, hinting at deeper losses ahead
  • Narrow range, with looming top-tier event risk argue for against short position

The Australian Dollar may be preparing to turn lower as expected as prices edge below near-term range support having signaled ebbing upside momentum. Confirmation of a longer-term top remains elusive however, with the series of higher highs and lows set from June still firmly intact.

From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7892 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 0.7784. Alternatively, a sustained advance above the 14.6% Fib at 0.7958 sees the next upside barrier at 0.8066, the July 27 high.

Tempting though it is to take a short position, opting for the sidelines seems most prudent. The near-term range is narrow and high profile event risk by way of the US jobs report can generate ample volatility that materially alters technical positioning.

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