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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Sharp Gains Seem Corrective

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Sharp Gains Seem Corrective

2017-03-16 10:26:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Aussie Dollar gains most in 9 months after FOMC rate decision
  • Looking for actionable signal to sell in line with long-term trend

The Australian Dollarposted the largest daily gain in nine months as its US counterpart slumped following the FOMC monetary policy announcement (as expected). Longer-term positioning continues to appear bearish however, hinting that near-term gains are corrective.

From here, a daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7709 opens the door for a challenge of the 0.7760-77 area (double top, 50% level). Alternatively, a turn back below the 0.7609-24 region (resistance-turned-support, 23.6% Fib) paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% expansion at 0.7572

An actionable trading opportunity is absent for now. A clear-cut bearish reversal signal is needed to enter short in line with the dominant trend. On the other hand, tactically taking up the long side is unattractive from a risk/reward perspective. Standing aside seems best until something more compelling presents itself.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Sharp Gains Seem Corrective

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