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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Short Trade Pressured

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Short Trade Pressured

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7526
  • Aussie Dollar trying to rebuild upside momentum, challenge 0.77 anew
  • Short position remains in play but prices threaten to activate stop-loss

The Australian Dollar is attempting to rebuild upside momentum, working to secure another test of the 0.77 figure after finding interim support below the 0.75 mark. On the other hand, a Head and Shoulders topping pattern be in the works, although confirmation of such a setup is far from clear at this point.

Near-term support is in the 0.7477-0.7511 area, marked by the March 24 low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this barrier exposes the intersection of a rising trend lien and the 38.2% level at 0.7381. Alternatively, a daily close above the 14.6% Fib expansion at 0.7622 paves the way for a test of the 0.7703-23 region (23.6% expansion, March 31 high).

We entered short AUD/USD at 0.7526 as technical positioning hinted the long-term down trend was possibly resuming, in line with our 2016 fundamental outlook. Prices are pressuring our stop-loss at 0.76 but the trade is set to remain in play absent a daily close above this level.We continue to initially target 0.7381 as the first downside objective.

Are markets primed for Aussie strength or weakness in the Q2? See our forecast here!

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Short Trade Pressured

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