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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY. Will Yen Weakness Resume?

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY. Will Yen Weakness Resume?

Daniel McCarthy, Strategist


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Japanese Yen, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY - Talking Points

  • USD/JPY retreated dramatically from the precipice of a multi-year high
  • Bollinger Band indicators could see AUD/JPY pause against momentum
  • The Yen has rallied through a number of hurdles. How high can it jump?

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USD/JPY – Technical Analysis

Last week USD/JPY stalled at the March 2017 high of 115.505 and then retraced 2 big figures to end the week.

The sharp move lower broke below several short-term simple moving averages (SMA) and a previous low at 113.589. This level and the 10, 21 and 34-day SMAs are now potential resistance levels.

The 55, 100, 200 and 260-day SMAs are below the price and have positive gradients. This could indicate bearish short-term momentum coming up against bullish medium and long-term momentum.

The sell off stopped just short of a pivot point level at 113.004 and it may provide support if tested again. Previous lows and other pivot points at 112.727, 112.079, 110.802, 109.113 and 108.723 are possible support levels.


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AUD/JPY – Technical Analysis

On Friday last week, AUD/JPY fell 2.7%. It broke down through two pivot points, the 100-day SMA pierced an ascending trend line to make a low of 80.482. It did recover the next day to be back above the trend line and a lack of follow through might indicate a false break.

The pivot pints at 81.312 and 82.16 may offer resistance, as well as the 100-day SMA currently at 81.836. 82.16 also coincides with the 260-day SMA. Further up, the previous highs at 83.249, 84.162 and 86.261 are possible resistance levels.

On that run down, it broke outside the lower band of 21-day SMA based Bollinger Band. A close back inside the lower band might indicate a pause in bearishness.

However, by moving below the 100-day SMA, AUD/JPY is now below all short, medium and long-term SMAs. It also has a negative gradient on all SMAs with the exception of the 200 and 260-day SMA. This could suggest that bearish mometum is evolving.

A cluster of SMAs lie between 82.160 and 83.139 and that zone might offer resistance.

On the downside, the previous lows at 80.482, 79.902, 78.846 and 77.897 are potential support levels.


--- Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.