News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/bpKdIqGxsn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/jmcAIW4w5k
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/M9isuvnzqF
  • The British Pound is giving back some of its multi-month gains with some pairs testing notable support despite a positive fundamental backdrop. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/6Ct5R0H41F https://t.co/c4rXmMjMrv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/4dhCP5pnxM
  • Gold is facing the neckline of a Double Bottom Pattern after bouncing off a confirmed longer-term trendline. Is a bullish reversal in order? Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/kLXZewWBMd https://t.co/w1Nu0z569m
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/Gn41XsGktg
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/2AR1qgx0tz
  • The New Zealand Dollar is in a tricky spot. On one hand, rising stocks can propel NZD. On the other, a dovish RBNZ ahead could cool bond yields as the government tackles soaring housing costs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/5rjm2gr3EL https://t.co/aLwhWHMPqz
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/obH0RFLKhC
South African Rand Outlook: USD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR

South African Rand Outlook: USD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR

Warren Venketas, Markets Writer

ZAR TALKING POINTS:

  • South African Rand continues to show strength as last week’s gains are sustained
  • ZAR crosses holding at key levels of support
  • South African Balance of Trade and PMI data due this week
  • Global market PMI’s and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND STRENGTH LINGERS FOR NOW

Last week the Rand has remained resolute against majors with global ‘risk on’ sentiment as well as South African CPI figures which saw inflation well within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. Despite a respectable week from the Euro and Pound, market participants favored Emerging Market (EM) currencies.

Visit the DailyFX Educational Center to discover more on why news events are essential to FX fundamental analysis

ZAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Another dismal week for the US Dollar helped keep the ZAR wading through the 23.6% Fibonacci and 38.2% Fibonacci levels respectively (February 2018 low to April 2020 high). The 16.5000 psychological level (blue) is not far away as mentioned in my previous article on ZAR price action setups. 16.3444 (38.2% Fibonacci) may be the next major level of support, which if broken, may further downward momentum to 16.0000.

Alternatively, price may use 16.3444 as a springboard to rise back towards the upper end of the range at the 23.6% Fibonacci level.

USD/ZAR: Daily Chart

USD/ZAR daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Starts in:
Live now:
Apr 12
( 02:04 GMT )
Keep up to date with price action setups!
Cross-Market Weekly Outlook
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

GBP/ZAR: Daily Chart

South African Rand Outlook: USD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

GBP/ZAR is pulling back towards confluent support consisting of the 23.6% Fibonacci and recent bullish crossover of the 50-day (black) and 100-day (red) Moving Average (MA). The 23.6% Fibonacci has been a key level of support and traders will want to keep a close eye on a break below or a push off towards trendline resistance on the multi-month triangle (blue).

Keep up to date with your indicators via our Technical Indicator Toolbox

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

EUR/ZAR: Daily Chart

South African Rand Outlook: USD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

EUR/ZAR mirrors a similar setup to both the USD/ZAR and GBP/ZAR crosses. Last week saw a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci (20.0222) and price is currently hold at the 50% Fibonacci (19.7428). The pair is likely waiting for a catalyst to provide the Rand with a directional bias.

ECONOMIC DATA MAY PROVIDE THE CATALYST NEEDED FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE

DailyFX Economic Calendar

South African Rand Outlook: USD/ZAR, GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR

Rand traders have a lot to look out for later today and tomorrow with the Balance of Trade figures out at 14:00 (GMT+2) and ABSA Manufacturing PMI 11:00 (GMT+2). Both will likely have an impact on ZAR price action. Any significant deviation from estimates may result in large price swings. It will be interesting to see whether recent ZAR strength will have any influence on import and export data.

Introduction to Forex News Trading
Introduction to Forex News Trading
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Learn more on how to trade the news!
Get My Guide

Global markets will also provide key PMI data throughout the week with the US and China. China has already missed expectations which was immediately echoed in greenback strength. If US PMI data is in line or better than expectation, the US Dollar could further it’s near term strength. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday have been unpredictable to say the least with large variations from expectant figures. How will the upcoming NFP figures compare?

ZAR STRATEGY MOVING FORWARD

The ZAR has shown resilience since August but will upcoming economic data put a halt to Rand bulls? The South African currency is heavily reflective of global market sentiment which is constantly in a state of change especially in the current economic climate, so traders will need to monitor global risk events for potential momentum shifts.

Key trading points to consider:

  • Technical analysis – USD/ZAR: 16.3444 (38.2% Fibonacci level); GBP/ZAR: MA crossover to extend bullish move; EUR/ZAR: 19.7428 Fibonacci level
  • Local Balance of Trade and PMI data
  • Global PMI’s and NFP data

--- Written by Warren Venketas for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES