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AUD Q3 Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Yearly Range Support- Looking for a Low in Q3

AUD Q3 Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Yearly Range Support- Looking for a Low in Q3

Michael Boutros, Strategist
  • Australian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Monthly, Weekly Chart
  • Break below yearly opening-range could put bearish tilt heading into Q3
  • Focus key support into 74-handle – Riskis lower while below the yearly open

Heading into the second quarter, our forecast highlighted that Aussie had failed a stretch into critical resistance at 8004/65- a region defined by the 2004 swing high, the 2010 low and the 2017/2018 close highs. AUD/USD continued to hold a well-defined yearly opening-range into June before collapsing more than 6.6% off the yearly highs.

AUD/USD Price Chart– Monthly Timeframe

Source – Trading View; Prepared by Michael Boutros

Building weekly momentum divergence into the yearly highs continues to highlight the threat for a deeper Aussie pullback heading into the close of June trade. Initial weekly support eyed at the May 2017 low-week close / 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 rally at 7385-7417. A break / monthly close below would be needed to keep the immediate downtrend viable towards key support at the 2015 low-close / 38.2% retracement at 7014/52- and area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

Gold Price Chart – Weekly Timeframe

Source – Trading View; Prepared by Michael Boutros

A closer look at the weekly chart shows Aussie breaking below the April 2020 channel line with the decline trading within the confines of a newly identified descending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly highs. Initial resistance stands back at the objective 2021 yearly open / 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 7701/33 with broader bearish invalidation lowered to the yearly high-close at 7866.

Bottom line: Australian Dollar threatened a break below the yearly opening-range into the close of June and we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low heading into the third quarter. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards the 74-handle – and look for a reaction there for guidance. Rallies should be capped by the upper parallel IF Aussie is indeed heading lower on this break.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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