Talking Points:
- USD/JPY’s range looks solid, and there’s equally solid fundamental justification for it
- Still, it’s wide enough and offers opportunity
- GBP/JPY bulls have the upper hand, but can they keep it?
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The Japanese Yen remains essentially rangebound against the US Dollar, as it has for the past couple of months.
There is a sound enough fundamental justification for this. On the one hand generally strong economic data tends to support the Dollar but, on the other, ever-present worries about the deterioration of trade relations between Washington and Beijing tend to produce at least a knee-jerk bid for the Japanese currency.
Overall USD/JPY market bias remains to the downside, firmly if gradually, as it has for much of the year.
However, while the current range holds then US Dollar bears are going to have to limit their ambitions. USD/JPY bounced in the 105.42 region back in late March, and that now forms the range base.
It is now some way below the market, too, and seems unlikely to face a serious test unless this week’s low of 105.68 gives way on a daily or weekly closing basis. That seems unlikely too, for the moment.
That said the range top at 107.04 doesn’t seem to be under much immediate threat either. The US Dollar conspicuously failed to gain further there on March 28, as it did on March 11. This level looks like quite a serious barrier to near-term bullish progress.
All up the best bet would seem to be playing this range until some evidence that it’s on the way out is seen. It’s reasonably wide so offers investors opportunity both to the upside and the down.
Meanwhile Sterling finds itself in a nice little uptrend against the Yen, with the long GBP/JPY down-move from the peaks of early February now consigned to memory.
However, the Pound needs to regain the highs of late March in the 150.40 level if this uptrend is going to convince and not find itself petering out. The pair’s Relative Strength Index doesn’t indicate any overbuying yet, but it is edging up. Sterling bulls need to consolidate and push on this week.
Resources for Traders
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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research
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