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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Watch Where USD/JPY Bounces

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Watch Where USD/JPY Bounces

2017-07-21 01:25:00
David Cottle, Analyst

Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY has put in yet another lower high and seems in full retreat
  • A bounce at current levels might be the best thing bulls have to look forward to
  • More serious worries lurk not too far below

See what the trading community makes of the Japanese Yen right now at the DailyFX sentiment page

The Japanese Yen is looking pretty bullish against its US rival.

The long USD/JPY downtrend in place since the end of 2017 was confirmed, as if it much needed confirmation, by the formation of yet another lower high on July 10. That level – 114.07 – now seems quite unattainable as the pair languishes in the high 111s, with no sign of any bullish backbone emerging at all.

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Watch Where USD/JPY Bounces

The question is, where might it finally get some and bounce this time? Well, USD/JPY is currently testing a cluster of short term supports from late June. These extend from current levels down to 111.48 or so. That was June 12’s intraday low.

A bounce here would be perhaps the best any lingering bulls can now hope for. But if this region cannot hold the fall then there’s further support around July 10’s close of 110.39 and June 14’s 109.30.

Things get more serious if even those can’t stand. Then we would be looking at the possibility of a more serious challenge of the year’s low. That’s the 108.15 made on April 17. A foray down to that level will put the entire climb up from last November’s lows in an uncomfortable spotlight.

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Watch Where USD/JPY Bounces

Still, the Yen may be arm wrestling the greenback down to the tabletop but it’s having a much tougher time against the Australian Dollar. AUD/JPY has been moving along the uptrend channel from June 6’s lows I noted last time in what for a daily technical chart is virtual arrow-straightness.

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Watch Where USD/JPY Bounces

However a word of warning is in order. The Aussie looks rather overbought at this stage. Really overbought actually. Its Relative Strengh Index has been above what most analysts would consider the ‘warning’ level of 70 since July 10. This doesn’t have to presage any imminent collapse, but AUD/JPY looks like a currency cross in need of some pause for reflection.

A consolidative period should soon be with us and, if it isn’t, then it may be time to worry.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.