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Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

2017-02-17 20:45:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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  • EUR/USD responds at a big level
  • AUD/USD signs of struggle at long term resistance
  • USD/JPY respecting big levels on both sides

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EUR/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

“Watch for support near 1.0462-1.0539 (2015 lows).” Low this week was 1.0520, which is a few ticks under the December 2015 low. The ‘response’ at the level is promising in the context of a possible EUR/USD basing pattern but nothing more. Price action is muted to put it lightly and so are my opinions. As noted last week, “I think that EUR/USD is bottoming but am unsure if the low is in. A reversal on the first day, week, and month of the year is the best way for a market to reverse a major trend but upside from the low isn’t impressive (couldn’t even register an RSI above 70 on the daily for example).”

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GBP/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

There is no change to the long term GBP/USD comments, which continues to consolidate above the 13 week average following a sharp reversal. “Cable has followed through on the weekly reversal and closed above the 13 week average. The high is at the November high and a long term parallel so it could take some time to work out the kinks before an extension higher. The long term cycle is the most intriguing of all. “Did the 96 month (8 year) cycle low count just nail a major GBP/USD low (cycle is in February but give this some wiggle room)?

AUD/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

A key reversal (small range however) unfolded in Aussie. The prior week formed a doji. The view that an important bullish base has formed remains but the action of the last 2 weeks at resistance (.7700-.7835) warns of a pause in what has been the trend of 2017. Keep the RSI comments from last week in mind…”Weekly RSI has peaked at/near 60 on every bounce since after the 2011 peak. RSI at the 2 most recent lows (January 2016 and January 2017) are near 40, which is a positive. In other words, the momentum profile has improved which increases risk of an upside break.”

NZD/USD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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Kiwi remains capped by the upper end of its 2016 range and a channel line. Peaks in NZD/USD since the summer have been anything but clean but that may be changing as Friday’s high was right at the December high. Clean reactions at clean levels is a plus. I lean towards the downside with focus on the 55 week average (maybe a bit below).

USD/JPY

Weekly

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

USD/JPY range levels continue to play out. The high this week was the same price that was resistance in February 2016 (almost 1 year exactly…high last year was on 2/16…this week the high was on 2/15). I don’t consider the long upper wick on the weekly candle as a bearish characteristic because price is near the bottom of its range. A reversal bar implies reversal from a trend and in this case there is no trend to reverse. “The trendline / horizontal level above price and 110.67-111.90 range below price make for solid range barriers.”

USD/CAD

Weekly

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

USD/CAD is still stuck although the inside week at support is promising for a low. Loonie remains above long term parallels. From a momentum perspective, RSI failed at 60 on the latest rally. This characteristic is associated with either a downtrend or sideways trend. Also, the rally from May 2016 is corrective so the bias is for impulsive weakness but I don’t like being bearish into support (parallels).

USD/CHF

Weekly

Technical Weekly: AUD/USD Shows Signs of Struggle

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

See REAL TIME trader positioning

I’m still content to ‘think higher’ into late February/early March as Swissie has tended to top during that time period the last several years. “Broad upside potential is possible as long as price is above the 2011-2014 trendline. The trendline is near .9850 on log scale and just above .9700 on arithmetic (shown here). The topside of the wedge is worth knowing near 1.0450 (line off of 2012 and 2015 highs). Essentially, the wedge barriers are all I care about…all else is noise.”

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