News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders in the Euro have a big decision to make this weekend: if EUR/USD hits 1.20, will it continue to advance, consolidate or fall back? Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/8hAhguZcEA https://t.co/kwtatozp3z
  • The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market's most clear-cut price action signals for reversals and continuation. Learn more about this price action trading signal here: https://t.co/Yg6ecRZZNr https://t.co/9SdceNYUEK
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/imv2PnapzH
  • Defensive stocks have proven critically important when navigating stock market volatility. Find out what are the most defensive stocks here:https://t.co/TMcbMALtbw https://t.co/mmldxxEtsc
  • Dollar Index has broken major uptrend support and risks accelerated losses into the December open. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/Txo8l8S1f1 https://t.co/YLVzP95JH8
  • The MACD is an indicator that uses exponential moving averages (EMA) to determine trend strength along with entry points based on crossovers. Find out how you can use the MACD as a buy/sell signal here: https://t.co/qxnP99uqTQ https://t.co/tGVqSZ2zK3
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/reMoYpqkQO
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/sqeRL7Rf7u
  • Cyclical and non-cyclical stocks can help diversify a trader’s equity portfolio. Get your guide to understanding these stocks here: https://t.co/h7BKTd2J8N https://t.co/ukOW0dWJxf
  • Beautifully put. https://t.co/0fBsmUH6Pb
EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

2015-11-13 20:35:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:
  • EUR/USD summer lows resist but indecision at 30 year trendline (arithmetic)
  • USD/JPY median line does it again
  • AUD/USD – embrace the slop

--Subscribe to Jamie Saettele's distribution list in order to receive a free report to your inbox several times a week.

--For more analysis and trade setups (including current positions and the ‘watchlist’), visit SB Trade Desk

EUR/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-EURUSD broke the summer lows (1.0807/47) last week so downside potential may be realized towards parity (parallel with line from 1995-2008 highs). In fact, those summer lows provided resistance this week. Former support providing resistance is bearish but be aware of the 30 year trendline that EURUSD is sitting on. In other words, be quick to abandon a bearish bias and even turn bullish on a move through resistance (summer lows) lest you be run over by a rally similar in scope to the ones that have materialized from this line in the past. I’ve been tracking SSI down here too. Typically, SSI will register a reading near 2 (or -2 for a bull move) early in a trending move. Despite one of the strongest 20 day declines in recent years (20 day RoC was lower at the Jan and March lows), SSI hasn’t even spent much time above 1.5. The implication is that retail is hesitant to buy weakness. This isn’t necessarily bullish, but it’s not bearish either. It makes sense that these comments convey indecision; this week formed a doji after all!

GBP/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-No change to last week’s GBPUSD comments other than emphasizing the importance of where price is right now (see the Daily Techs). “In line with the broader trend, 9 months of sideways trade in GBP/USD has resolved to the downside. Focus is on the lower parallel supports that cross lows over the last several years. In other words, focus is on a new low (below the April low). A break of the downward sloping lower parallels could set off a crash towards the 2009 low.”

AUD/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-AUD/USD is in a tricky spot. The dominant downtrend is very much intact of course but there have been prolonged periods of trading around this median line that gave way to decent counter trend moves (rallies). In other words, everything since the September low may very well be corrective but AUD/USD could trade in a more or less nonsensical range for a while longer before the downtrend attempts to reassert. Levels of interest in the event of a new low are .6741 (1999 high) and .6433 (range expansion objective).

NZD/USD

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-NZD/USD is wedged between a long term resistance line (was support in January) and an even longer term support line. If this long term support gives way, then focus would shift to .5673 (combination of the next parallel and the 1999 high). Conditions are similar to that of AUD/USD (range).

USD/JPY

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-NFP day (11/6) produced a break above an important horizontal level in 121.60. FXTW wrote last Friday that “immediate focus is on the long term upward sloping median line. This line has been support and resistance in the past. The late 2014 (BoJ on Halloween) advance commenced upon a break above this line as well. Point is, the line is a useful reference point…so pay attention!” That line was reached on Monday and USD/JPY drifted lower the rest of the week. The short term breakout level (120.60) is important to the integrity of any bullish case. Weakness below there would once again bring a yearlong topping process into focus.

USD/CAD

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-FXTW wrote previously that “USD/CAD has plummeted from several pips shy of the long term Fibonacci retracement at 1.3462 (61.8% retracement of 2002-2007 decline). The current juncture, defined by the March high at 1.2834 and a slope level near 1.2720, could influence for a bounce but the larger trend has changed (it’s down).” Recent action diminishes confidence in (but doesn’t destroy) the topping ‘idea’. New highs could carry to the next parallel near 1.38 (all-time high is 1.618…). Below 1.3175 would delay anything bullish until support near 1.2900 (slope line that crosses the February high, March high, and October low).

USD/CHF

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Automate trades with Mirror Trader

-There is no change to recentUSD/CHF comments other than noting that .9900/40 is support in the event of a pullback. “USD/CHF has broken out from a 7+ month triangle. The rate has stalled at the year open price. The triangle breakout objective is 1.1182.”

Bonus Chart

BTC/USD (Bitcoin)

Weekly

EUR/USD Indecision (Weekly Doji) at 30 Year Trendline

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

-2 weeks ago, FXTW published a BTC/USD chart and noted that “BTC/USD has broken out from a 10 month sideways base. This is bullish until noted otherwise.” The range expansion objective from that base was 483.58 (317.99-152.40 + 317.99). The target was hit in just 5 days (high was 502). As is typical in such a speculative arena, intense media coverage marked the top of that move as well. So, how important was the top at 502? Or rather, how important was the breakout 2 weeks ago? There are parallels with the July 2012 breakout that may help in understanding the current environment.

-In July 2012, BTC/USD broke above the January high after 26 weeks of consolidation. The rally carried into the November 2011 high and reversed sharply following a weekly RSI print above 70 and tested the breakout level the same week. From the point of reversal, BTC/USD consolidated for 22 more weeks before resuming higher in January 2013.

-In October 2015, BTC/USD broke above the March high after 33 weeks of consolidation. The rally carried into the November 2014 high and reversed sharply following a weekly RSI print above 70 and tested the breakout level the same week. From the point of reversal, BTC/USD consolidated for ? more weeks before resuming higher in ? 2016.

-This should be fun to follow as we head into 2016 and beyond.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES