News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here:
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • Even more remarkable than the record high levels of leverage registered in US equities this past week was the attention it garnered. Paying attention to risk is a threat when markets are this high and the docket as dense as it is this week. My outlook:
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here:
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here:
  • USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge:
  • The formation of several bullish technical patterns suggests that the haven-associated Japanese Yen is at risk of further losses against the Euro and Australian Dollar. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:
DecisionTime in USD/CAD

DecisionTime in USD/CAD

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Price & Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price & Time

Talking Points

  • USD/CAD at technical crossroads
  • 200-day moving average remains key

Decision Time in USD/CAD

DecisionTime in USD/CAD

The last time I wrote about USD/CAD (read it here), I said that I was looking for a reversal or, at least, an attempt at one during the latter part of the week of March 7th (last week). We seem to have gotten the initial cyclical reaction I was looking for, albeit from levels below the idealized support at the 200-day moving average that I had mentioned. The jury is still out on the cyclical significance of this move as it could very well just be a minor reprieve before another leg down or the start of a much more important push higher.

Looking for real-time positioning data? Find out HERE

I know I sound wishy washy, but what makes this situation so complicated is that the long-term trend is higher and the medium-term trend is lower. If the long-term uptrend is going to reassert itself then this about the right time for it do so. The correction last spring, for instance, lasted right around two months before the long-term uptrend reasserted itself with a vengeance. Arguably, this near two-month correction is more important because we went down to test the 200-day moving average. For whatever reason first-time tests of the 200-day MA after a prolonged period above have a tendency to elicit pretty decent recoveries. Until last week, USD/CAD had not been below its 200-day MA in almost a year and a half so the ingredients seem to be in place for a decent rally.

What I do not like is the veracity of the move down since January. I like to monitor the three-week rate of change, as it is a good gauge of momentum. It recently fell to its lowest level in more than four years. This is troubling if you are a bull, but it could also be a sign that the decline is overdone. We shall see. I think the burden of proof is on the bulls. If the long-term uptrend is indeed reasserting itself here then I will need to see signs of a departure from the negative behavior of the past couple months. In other words, notable levels of resistance need to be taken out. The 20-day moving average (which capped the market back in February) around 1.3470 would be a good start. A drop back under the 200-day MA around 1.3300 would begin to raise concerns about a downside resumption, but only aggressive weakness under last week’s 1.3167 low would invalidate the potential positive cyclicality and open the door to a much more aggressive move lower.

What is the #1 mistake most FX traders make? Find out HERE.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.