Price & Time: Key Timing Week For Gold
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- Gold fails at confluence
- Key timing relationships coming up for the metal
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GOLD: Key Week For the Metal
Gold failed last week in the 1150/55 area which marked a confluence of the 50% retracement of the May – July range, the upper parallel of a pitchfork drawn from the March 2014 high and the 78.6% retracement of the August to September range. The clear failure at resistance keeps the metal in a generally negative technical position, but weakness under the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low near 1105 is really needed to confirm that a more meaningful leg lower is actually underway.
The middle/second half of this week is very important for XAU/USD from a timing perspective as a few different cyclical relationships will be converging in and around this time. A recovery into this turn window would not surprise. Resistance at 1150 could be tested and even break without causing too much technical damage, however, the same can’t be said about 1170 (61.8% retracement of May – July decline, 3rd square root relationship of YTD low and August high) as a traction above there especially after the end of the week would begin to raise the risk that a more important reversal is taking shape. From a broader perspective, I would still need to see the May high around 1230 overcome to signal a more profound behavioral change, but first things first.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.