News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Hang Seng Index (HSI) advanced 3.3% as investors shrugged off regulatory concerns. Will this rebound last? - Tencent (+8.8%) - Alibaba (+6.6%) - Meituan (+8.9%) - Hang Seng Tech Index (7.33%) https://t.co/dmTEa3J4we
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/X6Uvr2dsj0
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 94.19%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 69.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/EqA6PJH4Yt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/XCHxCSz9XZ
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.29% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.22% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/5W5WVMPcrH
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.00% FTSE 100: -0.10% US 500: -0.13% France 40: -0.15% Germany 30: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/p1qqTNx2Mz
  • RT @KyleR_IG: A history of US fiscal and monetary stimulus and the US 10 year yield: more stimulus, higher rates. When it comes to QE, mor…
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfs2Iz https://t.co/DfG4YuKM4U
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.03%) S&P 500 (-0.11%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.28%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Volatility follows the FOMC's slow approach to its second taper, but neither the Dollar nor the S&P 500 have held their charge. With US GDP ahead, expect the echoes of the central bank's warnings and watch $EURUSD and $USDCAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/07/29/EURUSD-Slow-Trigger-Reversal-and-USDCAD-Yet-to-Detonate-After-Fed-Before-US-GDP.html https://t.co/BCUTSX0WNY
Price & Time: GBP/USD - Seasonality vs. Symmetry

Price & Time: GBP/USD - Seasonality vs. Symmetry

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Price & Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price & Time

Talking Points

  • Important time retracement looming in the pound
  • Historical positive seasonality after the middle of September

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE

GBP/USD: Seasonality vs. Symmetry

Price & Time: GBP/USD - Seasonality vs. Symmetry

The failure last week in GBP/USD around 1.5660 was pretty much a Gann disciple’s dream as it occurred at a convergence of the 4th square root relationship of the month-to-date low and the 1x1 Gann angle line of the July 2014 high. All in all this price action keeps the pound on the back foot and continues to warn that the broader downtrend in place since the summer of last year is slowly but surely trying to reemerge.

A big part of this broader negative view is centered around the symmetry exhibited at the June and August peaks in Cable as the June highs materialized at the 25% retracement in time (calendar days) of the July 2014 – April 2015 decline while the August one occurred at the 50% retracement in time of this same move. Such clear symmetry in time is usually a hallmark of something more important.

That all said, I see plenty of potential hurdles coming up that could derail an immediate downside resumption. The first is the upcoming autumnal equinox and the seasonal propensity for sterling strength thereafter. When you look at currency seasonal patterns over the last 30 years or so a few key periods stick out and one of them is general dollar weakness starting at the end of the 3rd quarter and continuing on into the end of the year. Of course this is just a seasonal tendency and not too much of a concern unless GBP/USD starts to affirm it by taking out more important levels of resistance.

Much more important to me is how the pound reacts around the 61.8% retracement in time of the July 2014 – April 2015 decline early next week. As noted above, prior relationships from this trend cycle have had an important impact on price and how GBP/USD reacts around this key turn window should prove significant. My preferred scenario is for the pound to bottom out before the end of this week and actually rally into the turn window as another upside failure would help confirm the longer-term negative symmetry. Persistent weakness into early next week would raise concern that a low of some importance is setting up.

Suggested Reading: GBP/USD Pivots Near Wave Measurement Confluence

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES