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Price & Time: Calm Before the Storm?

Price & Time: Calm Before the Storm?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD meandering below 50-day MA
  • GBP/USD nearing key resistance
  • USDOLLAR fails again at important retracement level

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD continues to consolidate below the 50-day moving average near 1.1100
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 1.0920
  • A daily close above 1.1100 is needed to trigger another push higher in the euro
  • A very minor turn window is eyed today
  • A close back under 1.0920 would turn us negative again on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Square.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
EUR/USD*1.09201.10001.1065*1.11001.1155

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBPUSDcontinues to consolidate below the 61.8% retracement of the June-Jule decline at 1.5700
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below this level
  • A move below the 200-day moving average near 1.5400 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the exchange rate
  • A turn window of some importance is eyed late this week
  • A daily close above 1.5700 would turn us positive on cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.5700.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
GBP/USD*1.54001.54651.56301.5670*1.5700

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX

The FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD versus EUR, JPY, GBP & AUD) failed again last week near the 78.6% retracement of the April – May decline in the 12,050 area. There is some vulnerability in the index heading into the FOMC decision this afternoon after yesterday’s break of a minor trendline. However, we would need to see last week’s low around 11,975 give way to trigger a double top on the daily and prime the market for a more serious correction. Traction over 12,050 would alleviate our budding concerns of a correction and set the stage for a re-test of the April high.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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