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Price & Time: Looking To The Fed For Direction

Price & Time: Looking To The Fed For Direction

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist


Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USDcontinues to consolidate below the 78.6% retracement of the May range at 1.1330
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 1.1160
  • Traction above 1.1330 is needed to set off the next leg higher in the rate
  • A turn window of some importance is seen Thursday/Friday
  • A close below 1.1160 would turn us negative again on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.1160

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD fell to a new multi-year low today
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Kiwi while below .7000
  • Minor support is eyed around .6900 ahead of an importantg Fibonacci extension at .6805
  • A turn window of some importance is seen here
  • A daily close back above .7000 would turn us positive on the Bird

NZD/USD Strategy: Square for now.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Focus Chart of the Day: USDOLLAR

The FX markets have clearly been confused over the past few weeks on where USD is headed in a medium-term sense. The price action in the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD versus EUR, JPY, GBP & AUD) has reflected this with sharp moves recently in both directions. Hopefully today’s Fed meeting will break the directional deadlock and shed some light on where USD is headed. The double failure recently near the 78.6% retracement of the April – May decline puts the index in a negative position heading into today, but we would need to see a close under last week’s low and probably the 61.8% retracement of the May – June advance at 11,790 to get more excited about a material dollar decline. The 50-day moving average near 11,900 looks to be a near-term upside pivot for USDOLLAR.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.