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Price & Time: Sterling Confluence

Price & Time: Sterling Confluence

2015-04-27 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY rebounds again from Gann support
  • NZD/USD holds above minor trendline
  • GBP/USD reverses from key Fibonacci/Gann price zone

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Sterling Confluence

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY continues to meander between Gann levels near 118.40 and 120.00
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower while below 121.00
  • A move under 118.40/20 is needed to set off a more important move to the downside in the exchange rate
  • Several short-term cycles are converging over the next couple of days
  • A close over 121.00 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Cycle analysis suggests there is some risk of a turnaround here. Like holding only a reduced short postion while under 121.00. Would look to add if spot breaks 118.20

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*118.40/20

119.50

119.25

120.20

*121.00

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Sterling Confluence

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD rebounded last week just ahead of a trendline connecting the March and Mid-April lows
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Kiwi while above .7520
  • A move through .7725 is neeeded to re-instill upside momentum in the rate
  • The middle of the week looks significant from a medium-term cyclical perspective
  • A daily close below .7520 would turn us negative on NZD/USD

NZD/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

.7450

*.7520

.7605

.7615

*.7725

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

Price & Time: Sterling Confluence

Last week when we looked at cable we argued that despite the clear failure at 1.5050 the rate was still susceptible to another push higher. This is pretty much what happened as the pound reversed nicely from a minor Fibonacci retracement near 1.4850 during the cycle turn window at the start of the week to trade at its highest level in almost two months on Friday. Where the rate stalled last week (1.5175/85) looks to be a clear pivot as it marks a convergence of the 61.8% retracement of the February-April range, the 1x2 Gann angle line of the 2014 high and the 5th square root relationship of the year-to-date low. Traction above this zone is now needed to trigger another leg higher in the pound. While below 1.5185 some caution is warranted, but only weakness under 1.4940 turns the technical picture overtly negative.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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