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Price & Time: USD/CAD Burden of Proof

Price & Time: USD/CAD Burden of Proof

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist


Talking Points

  • USD/JPY unable to get a foothold above 120.00
  • USDOLLAR fails at key retracement
  • Range break needed for directional clarity in USD/CAD

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has stalled near the 50% retracement of the March range in the 120.20 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative on USD/JPY while below 120.60
  • Weakness under 119.50 is needed to re-instill downside momentum into the exchange rate and set up a test of more important downside pivots located at 118.40 and 118.00
  • A minor turn window is eyed here
  • A close over the 61.8% retracement of the March range at 120.60 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Square.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • US DOLLAR stalled its advance yesterday near the 78.6% retracement of March range at 12,095
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the dollar while above 11,970
  • A move through 12,095 is needed to signal that the broader trend is resuming
  • A very minor turn window is eyed here
  • A close under 11,970 would turn us negative on the Index

FXCM US DOLLAR Strategy: Square.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
US DOLLAR*11,97012,02512,050*12,09512,125

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

USD/CAD continues to be a difficult chart to figure out. After being on the cusp of breaking down last week the exchange rate reversed pretty much where it had to (trendline connecting February lows) and rallied right back up to recent highs. I suppose the simplest way to look at his thing is as range between 1.2830 and 1.2350, with everything else in between really just being noise in a medium-term sense. The FOMC day reversal which was one of the widest ranges in years on some of the highest volume in years is still a nagging concern of mine and will continue to be while we trade sub 1.2830. However, until or unless we convincingly break the February lows at 1.2350 there is really little reason to read too much into it. A daily settlement north of 1.2830 would alleviate our concerns about the action from a couple of weeks ago and set the stage for another meaningful run higher.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.