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Price & Time: Multi-Month Reversal Tiggered in Gold

Price & Time: Multi-Month Reversal Tiggered in Gold

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist


Talking Points

  • EUR/USD rebounds from 9-year lows
  • S&P 500 loses upside momentum
  • Gold triggers inverse H&S pattern

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to a new 9-year low last week before entering into consolidation mode over the past few days
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the euro while below 1.1880
  • The 1.1750 area remains a key near-term pivot with weakness below needed to trigger the next leg lower in the exchange rate
  • A medium-term turn window is seen today/tomorrow
  • A close over 1.1880 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1880.

InstrumentSupport 2Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 stalled last week just below the 78.6% retracement of the late December – early January decline at 2070
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the index while above 2000
  • Traction over 2070 is needed to confirm a resumption of the broader trend
  • A minor turn window is seen today and later this week
  • A close under 2000 would turn us negative on the S&P 500

S&P 500 Strategy: Like the long side while above 2000.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
S&P 500*2000202220352047*2070

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

XAU/USD has broken above a slew of key resistance levels over the past 24 hours including the 1x1 Gann angle line from the 2012 high, a trendline connecting the October and December highs and the December high itself. The trendline break is perhaps the most significant as it could also be interpreted as the neckline of a multi-month inverse head & shoulders pattern which sets the stage for a period of greater strength in the metal. From a currency trading perspective we can’t help but wonder if this strength in Gold is an early warning sign for the USD in general and suggestive of a looming counter-trend move? So far our fears on the extended nature of the dollar trend have been unfounded, but the conditions for a decent correction remain firmly in place. As for XAU, a Gann level at 1244 is the next big pivot on the upside with traction above needed to prompt another important push higher. Weakness under 1205 would cause concern, but only weakness under 1166 would turn the technical picture outright negative again.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.