News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: $NZDUSD, $NZDJPY React as Soaring Treasury Yields Skew Market Risk Profile Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/02/26/NZDUSD-NZDJPY-React-as-Soaring-Treasury-Yields-Skew-Market-Risk-Profile.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr $TNX https://t.c…
  • Biden authorized strikes on Iran-backed militant groups. Strike was in response to attacks on US, coalition forces -BBG citing DOD #CrudeOil
  • The commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar may continue outperforming its major counterparts in the coming weeks. USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD key levels to watch. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/KYdUv2lpFC https://t.co/ZZUJ4AZEhc
  • Market Snapshot: Risk aversion is deepening as Friday APAC trade gets going $NZDUSD and $AUDUSD sinking Following declines in #SP500 and #Nikkei225 futures #USD broadly higher, anti-risk Japanese #Yen as well US 10-Year Treasury rates remain higher https://t.co/gQ50vS73P0
  • RBNZ's Orr: To consider settings against types of home lending, financial stability policies can help government housing objectives -BBG
  • RBNZ's Orr: Only focused on inflation, employment targets -BBG
  • RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr: Monetary policy CTTE remit targets are unchanged, MPC will explain impact of decisions on housing market. Remain committed to current stimulatory monetary settings -BBG
  • Senate parliamentarian ruled minimum-wage boost out of order -BBG
  • RBA offers to buy A$3 billion in defense of yield target -BBG #RBA $AUDUSD
  • 🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Prel (JAN) Actual: -5.3% Previous: -2.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-02-25
Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

  • AUD/USD | Pullbacks Finding Support
  • AUD/NZD | Rich Levels Relative to Spreads

A bout of risk aversion sees the Australian Dollar under pressure this morning with a larger than expected drop in retail sales adding to the soft tone for the currency. However, the retail sales data can be largely overlooked given that it is a slight normalisation from the Black Friday inspired boost in prior month. That said, the trend remains the same for the US Dollar, which is likely to continue its downtrend.

AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Download our fresh Q1 2021 AUD Forecast
Get My Guide

AU DATA RECAP

Australian Retail Sales (Dec P M/M) -4.2% vs Est. -2.5%

AUD/USD | Pullbacks Finding Support

Despite the modest pullback throughout today’s session thus far as equity markets edge lower, the outlook for the currency remains positive as global monetary and fiscal stimulus will continue to underpin risk sentiment. Looking at the chart, AUD/USD continues to find a bid on dips towards the 20DMA (0.7715), which in turn keeps the recent high in focus. However, failure to hold at the 20DMA risks a move to 0.7650 for support.

AUD/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 5% -16% -9%
Weekly -2% -16% -11%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

AUD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitiv

AUD/NZD | Rich Levels Relative to Spreads

A cross that is of interest is AUD/NZD which is trading at rich levels relative to spreads. Overnight, NZ CPI printed above expectations, while local banks (Westpac & Kiwibank) have recently cut back on their forecasts of the RBNZ lowering rates further. In turn, with a market that is long AUD/NZD (according to leveraged positioning) risks are for a setback below 1.0700. On the technical side, focus will be on the 5/20DMA crossover for confirmation for AUD/NZD to head lower.

NZ DATA RECAP

New Zealand CPI (Q4 Y/Y) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.0%- (Q/Q) 0.5% vs. Est. 0.0%

AUD/NZD vs AU/NZ 10YR Spreads

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD, AUD/NZD Levels to Watch

Source: Refinitv

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES