News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Bitcoin selling off today, now down almost 10% $BTC $USD #Bitcoin https://t.co/iej9CG6FH2
  • US Dollar stronger as stocks wobble, look set to end the week lower $USD $DXY https://t.co/0Fm6rMwkyY
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.17% Gold: -0.92% Silver: -2.92% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zvqbRrFFkz
  • What are some factors driving AUD? Get your free forecast for this quarter here:https://t.co/z85CIVYiuK #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/ChXMKNRZJq
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.77%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 67.96%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/vhr8Gb1Bq6
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.18% FTSE 100: 0.18% Germany 30: 0.12% Wall Street: -0.33% US 500: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7DGlE6dS0T
  • $Gold has fallen below $1,830 and is trading near the weekly lows set on Monday. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/Vx535Dw5Ar
  • Conte's allies optimistic he can survive Italian Senate vote - BBG. $EUR
  • The $VIX ticked higher during trading today as stocks slip headed into next week's event risk underpinned by China GDP, the inauguration, and global PMI data. https://t.co/UCwcEZEGCJ
  • $usd trying to put on a Friday breakout ahead of the close, technically just set a fresh three-week-high not sure if it'll have the push to get up there but next res level i'm looking for is ~91 in $DXY https://t.co/qh2f97Ec1u https://t.co/INmUxVMYR4
USD/JPY Trading Near the 106.00 handle as Risk Trends Dominate

USD/JPY Trading Near the 106.00 handle as Risk Trends Dominate

2016-06-13 07:20:00
Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY currently trades near the 106.00 handle after breaking down in Asian trade

- A quiet Monday news flow wise stands in sharp contrast to a week full of key event risk

- GSI is a powerful big data indicator that can help you determine whether short-term trends will continue or reverse

The USD/JPY currently trades below the 106.00 handle (at the time this report was written) after the pair broke down in Asia trading hours. The move lower appeared to be on the backdrop of a general “risk off” environment following a sharp move lower on Wall Street this past Friday.

A quiet Monday news flow wise stands in sharp contrast to the rest of the week, which includes rate decisions by major central banks, with the FOMC and BoJ in focus for the pair.

Taking this into consideration, we look to find short term trading opportunities using the Grid Sight Index (GSI) indicator.

USD/JPY Trading Near the 106.00 handle as Risk Trends Dominate

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

The quiet economic calendar today might indicate that focus will be put on risk trends and possibly pre-positioning for key event risk later this week. Indeed, the “anti-risk” Yen status appears to have helped the currency break below the 106.00 handle versus the US Dollar earlier, and rate decisions by the central banks could induce more volatility for the pair. With that said, other event risks, such as the possibility for a “Brexit”, and their affect on risk trends might have amplified implications for the pair while divergent monetary policies appear to play a more complicated role than in the past years.

USD/JPY 5-Min GSI Chart: June 13, 2016

USD/JPY Trading Near the 106.00 handle as Risk Trends Dominate

The USD/JPY is testing the big 106.00 level at the time of writing. We can see that the GSI indicator shows that the pair continued higher by 12 pips in 50% of similar past events (as opposed to 21% moves lower by 14 pips). If this is the case again, the pair might attempt to break above and hold the 106.00 level. The GSI indicator calculates the distribution of past event outcomes given certain momentum patterns, and can give you a look at the market in a way that's never been possible before, analyzing millions of historical prices in real time. By matching events in the past, GSI describes how often the price moved in a certain direction.

You can learn more about the GSI here.

USD/JPY Technical Levels:

USD/JPY Trading Near the 106.00 handle as Risk Trends Dominate

Click here for the DailyFX Support & Resistance tool

We use volatility measures as a way to better fit our strategy to market conditions. The USD/JPY could see heightened volatility this coming days on major event risks with FOMC and BoJ interest rate decisions down the line. This could imply that breakout type trades are preferable in the short term, as the market may see swings on pre-positioning and large movements in risk assets.

USD/JPY 30-Min Chart: June 13, 2016

USD/JPY Trading Near the 106.00 handle as Risk Trends Dominate

The USD/JPY is testing the 106.00 level after breaking lower earlier today.

If the pair manages to hold below the level, this might expose a possible support zone between 105.66 to 105.37, with the 105.00 handle lower.

Levels of interest on a move higher may be 106.255 followed by a resistance zone at about 106.50 and another zone at around 107.20.

When price reaches those levels, short term traders might use the GSI to view how prices reacted in the past given a certain momentum pattern, and see the distribution of historical outcomes in which the price reversed or continued in the same direction.

A common way to use GSI is to help you fade tops and bottoms, and trade breakouts. That’s why traders may want to use the GSI indicator when price reaches those specific pre-determined levels, and fit a strategy that might offer a proper way to define risk.

Meanwhile, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is showing that about 76.6% of traders are long the USD/JPY at the time of writing, suggesting that traders might be trying to pick a bottom in the pair. The SSI is mainly used as a contrarian indicator, implying further weakness ahead.

You can find more info about the DailyFX SSI indicator here

--- Written by Oded Shimoni, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES