Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
Crude Oil Price Forecast: September Support in Focus On TL Failure

Crude Oil Price Forecast: September Support in Focus On TL Failure

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Share:

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Flat
  • WTI Fell below $45 turning focus to Support on $43
  • Break Below Support Of $43 Opens Preference To Short On Presumed Retest Of $38

Today’s EIA report of drop in inventory of 1.9 Million bbls was not enough to give crude oil a lasting bid. Shortly after the inventories print, oil rose toward the 3 week trendline resistance around $47.17 but was unable to hold. This move took other linked markets like USDCAD higher along with USD/EMFX aggressively moving higher on the week signaling USD strength which isn’t favorable for long-term Oil prospects.

The technical outlook for crude oil is highly dependent on the technical level of $43.60 holding. A break below there would put pressure on the September monthly opening range low breaking at $43.19. Currently, a break above $47.69, the September 17th high is need to turn the short-term outlook bullish. Longer-term resistance focus remains on the August 31st high of $49.30/49 per barrel should a breakdown in the USD develop alongside a break above $47.69.

Short-term traders can look for a bounce off support of the September low at $43 for a tactical play higher. However, a stop and reverse play may be appropriate as a large break higher in USD could turn our focus back toward new 6-year lows in a hurry. Currently, emerging markets are not providing a positive backdrop story to encourage demand picking up anytime soon. The Caixin China PMI hit its lowest levels since March 2009 on September 23rd, which is indicative of the larger demand drop and a break of $43 will turn the focus on oil definitively lower. T.Y.

Add these technical levels directly to your charts with our Support/Resistance Wizard app!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES