Crude Oil, Gold and SPX 500 Await Direction Cues in Established Ranges

2015-03-04 03:19:00 Ilya Spivak

Talking Points:

US Dollar Fails to Pierce Monthly Range Top Again
S&P 500 Rally Fizzles After Hitting New Record High
Gold, Crude Oil Prices Locked in Familiar Territory

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water having topped as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 11740 exposes the 23.6% level at 11653. Alternatively, a turn above the 11854-76 zone (14.6% Fib expansion, March 2009 high) clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 11963.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest gains after advancing to yet another record high. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion 2117.80 exposes the 23.6% level at 2130.40. Near-term range support is at 2101.40, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% Fib retracement at 2086.40.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate after descending to a two-month low below the $1200/oz figure. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1194.94 exposes the 38.2% level at 1177.51. Alternatively, a rebound above the 1216.30-19.30 area marked by trend line support-turned-resistance and the 23.6% Fib retracement targets the 38.2% threshold at 1233.73.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched a recovery as expected, with buyers now consolidating below February’s swing high. From here, a break below channel support at 60.16 exposes resistance-turned-support at 58.17. Alternatively, a close above the February 17 high at 62.98 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 66.69.