Talking Points:
- US Dollar Chart Setup Continues to Warn of Downturn
- S&P 500 Bounces at Support, Returns to Familiar Range
- Gold in Digestion Mode, Crude Oil Aims Above $59.00
Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be preparing to decline after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. Near-term support is at 11734, the intersection of the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 11648. Alternatively, a move above the 11854-88 area marked by the March 2009 high and the 38.2% level clears the way for a test of the 50% Fib at 11983.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices declined as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 1980.20-88.00 area marked by a rising trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement exposes the 50% level at 1955.80. Alternatively, a push above the 23.6% Fib at 2028.00 targets the January 23 high at 2068.10.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from resistance-turned-support at October’s swing highs, producing the largest daily advance in 3 weeks. A daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1285.20 exposes the 38.2% level at 1305.73. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1253.77 targets the 50% threshold at 1237.18.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher following a prolonged period of consolidation after bottoming as expected above the $45.00/barrel figure. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 59.08 exposes the 50% level at 63.38. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 53.77 targets the 14.6% retracement at 50.49.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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