News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • UK Health Secretary Javid will tonight warn masks, working from home, and vaccine passports will be brought in unless more Brits get their booster jabs - The Sun
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.26%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 72.80%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6QXSNNKeNM
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (15/OCT) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-20
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/nOWsMS6vVL
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.10% Gold: 0.56% Oil - US Crude: -1.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/YpuIOxQHMK
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ESvLA3Hjiw
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.04% Wall Street: 0.00% US 500: -0.01% FTSE 100: -0.08% France 40: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/vk97Gc2YNG
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/JVcUobefnY
  • China Securities Regulator says China will look to curb excessive bond financing and prevent high leverage
  • 💶 Inflation Rate YoY Final (SEP) Actual: 3.4% Expected: 3.4% Previous: 3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-10-20
Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018 - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Strategist

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis

  • Euro Net Longs Surge on Short Squeeze
  • US Dollar Shorts Largest Since May 2018
  • Speculators Follow Risk Sentiment as AUD Shorts are Unwound

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to June 9th, released June 12th)

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018 - COT Report

In the week to June 16th, investors raised their short exposure in the US Dollar to its largest since May 2018 after a $6.789bln increase in net shorts against G10 currencies. While speculators appear to be positioning themselves for a reflationary environment, increased concerns of a second wave could see USD shorts begin to unwind.

The bulk of the USD selling had been against the Euro, which saw net longs rise $2.9bln, taking overall bullish bets to $16.5bln. This had largely been attributed to the near 19k lot reduction in outrights shorts. EU fiscal integration has played a large part in the Euro positive story, as such, focus will be on getting the frugal four onside (Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, and Sweden) to agree on the recovery fund proposal throughout the Summer.

The other major positioning change had been observed in the Australian Dollar with a $2bln pullback in net shorts, which in turn saw bearish positions fall to its lowest level since May 2018. Much like the Euro, this had been predominantly led by a short squeeze amid the notable recovery across risk sentiment.

Bearish sentiment for the Pound eased up with net shorts falling by 1/3 to $1.257bln, however, as Brexit risk premium is likely to persist throughout the Summer and Autumn, risks remain skewed to further weakness.

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

US Dollar |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

EUR/USD |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT ReportEuro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

GBP/USD |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT ReportEuro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

USD/JPY |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT ReportEuro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

USD/CHF |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT ReportEuro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

USD/CAD |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT ReportEuro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

AUD/USD |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT ReportEuro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

NZD/USD |

Euro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT ReportEuro Bulls Persist, US Dollar Net Shorts Largest Since May 2018  - COT Report

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES