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EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Strategist

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis

  • EUR/USD Net Longs Highest Since June 2018
  • Investors Increasingly Bearish on the US Dollar
  • USD/JPY Eyes Lower Levels

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to Mar 31st, released Apr 3rd)

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Shorts Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

At the end of March, the CFTC highlighted that the build-up in US Dollar bearish positioning to $9bln had been led by a sizeable increase ($1.9bln) in Euro net longs. Subsequently, this marks the largest bullish bet on the Euro since June 2018. However, much of the increase in net longs in the Euro has been largely driven by a short squeeze as opposed to investors taking up fresh longs. Therefore, with the potential for renewed volatility given the vulnerability in risk sentiment, risks are asymmetrically tilted to the upside for the greenback in the short term.

Net longs on the Japanese Yen were cut by $550mln as the safe-haven currency had been dampened by the pick up in equity markets, while the Japanese fiscal year-end had also placed pressure on the currency. That said, we still see risks skewed to the downside for USD/JPY with easing dollar shortage concerns paving the way for lower levels in the pair.

Elsewhere, non-commericals slightly reduced their bearish bets in the Canadian Dollar by $460mln amid a pullback in gross shorts. However, with low oil continuing to plague the Canadian Dollar economy, weakness against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen looks set to continue. Meanwhile, GBP/USD net longs had been cut back with the recovery in the pair capped at 1.2500.

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US Dollar | Net Shorts Building Up

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

EUR/USD | Shorts Aggressively Unwind

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

GBP/USD | Net Longs Ease

Please add a description for the image.EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

USD/JPY | Lower Levels Eyed After Month-End

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

USD/CHF | SNB Continues to Intervene

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

USD/CAD | Canadian Dollar at Risk From Oil Exposure

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

AUD/USD | Sentiment Deteriorates Further

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

NZD/USD | Most Shorted G10 Currency

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, US Dollar Bears Favour USD/JPY Weakness - COT Report

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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