News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • WTI #CrudeOil prices extend gains during Tuesday's Asia-Pacific trading session, nearing the July high at 76.95 Prices are up almost 0.9% on the day so far https://t.co/7afvVUXO27
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/vtqOrB41CF
  • Brent oil prices hit $80 per barrel for the first time since October 2018 #trading #OOTT
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/QwYndzNRVs
  • This week has started with the recovery rally in risk assets stalled and the Dollar looking down multiple barrels of fundamental threat in monetary policy and debt politics. $EURUSD is well positioned as indicator 1.1650-1.1750 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/09/28/EURUSD-and-USDJPY-Staged-for-Breaks-as-Fed-Calculus-Shifts-US-Debt-Limit-Looms.html https://t.co/y8pFw0XRqr
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/OYWQSvNK12
  • AUD/NZD, Could This be the Turnaround? - #AUDNZD chart on @TradingView https://t.co/Hl6VSfO5R8
  • Another pleasure being on @ausbiztv with host @AusAndrewG talking about US indices, rising bond yields and $USDJPY Check out the full interview here! - https://t.co/GWWCZ7t9Tf https://t.co/WmqUvCMvpZ
  • 🇦🇺 Retail Sales MoM Prel (AUG) Actual: -1.7% Previous: -2.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
  • 🇨🇳 Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY (AUG) Actual: 49.5% Previous: 57.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
AUDUSD Sentiment Most Bearish Since 2015, GBPUSD Shorts Soar - COT Report

AUDUSD Sentiment Most Bearish Since 2015, GBPUSD Shorts Soar - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Strategist

COT Report: Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD Long Positioning Given Modest Lift
  • GBPUSD Sentiment Continues to Deteriorate
  • AUDUSD Sentiment Most Bearish Since 2015

The Predictive Power of the CoT Report

Please add a description for the image.

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to May 28th, released May 31st)

AUDUSD Bears at 2015 Peak, GBPUSD Shorts Soar – COT Update

Bullish positioning in the USD saw a marginal uptick ($200mln rise) with net long positioning edging back towards its recent peak vs G10 currencies. The Euro remains the largest net short across the G10 complex with bearish bets at $13.9bln, however, net shorts had been reduced slightly.

Sentiment in GBP has continued to deteriorate with another sizeable jump in net shorts. Bearish bets now total $2.5bln and is the largest since the beginning of March with gross shorts rising over 30k contracts in the past 2-weeks. Elsewhere, speculators remain very bearish on the Aussie with gross shorts hovering at the largest level since 2015, consequently, this raises the risk of a potential short squeeze.

Short positioning in the Swiss Franc continues to look stretched with shorts outnumbering longs by 8.4:1. As such, there is a risk of further short covering in the safe-haven currency, particularly against the backdrop of weakening global activity. Elsewhere, the JPY saw a modest increase in net shorts, which total $6.3bln.

IG CLIENT POSITIONING:

Please add a description for the image.

IG client datashows 80.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.15 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.31656; price has moved 3.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.8% lower than yesterday and 8.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.1% higher than yesterday and 4.8% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

US Dollar

Please add a description for the image.

EURUSD

Please add a description for the image.Please add a description for the image.

GBPUSD

Please add a description for the image.Please add a description for the image.

USDJPY

Please add a description for the image.Please add a description for the image.

USDCHF

Please add a description for the image.Please add a description for the image.

USDCAD

Please add a description for the image.Please add a description for the image.

AUDUSD

Please add a description for the image.Please add a description for the image.

NZDUSD

Please add a description for the image.Please add a description for the image.

KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES