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COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

2016-10-10 16:31:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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  • GBP ownership profile back near a record
  • 3rd most 1 week week selling by gold speculators since 2007
  • Extreme position change in crude oil

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The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non-commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Latest CFTC Release dated October 4, 2016

Week (Data for Tuesdays)

52 week Percentile

US Dollar

24

Euro

49

British Pound

4

Australian Dollar

67

Japanese Yen

84

Canadian Dollar

43

Swiss Franc

22

Mexican Peso

2

Gold

63

Silver

65

Copper

92

Crude

98

Charts (all charts are continuous contract)

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff (COT Index) – Black

US Dollar ICEUS Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Euro CME Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

British Pound CME Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Australian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Japanese YenCME Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Canadian DollarCME Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Swiss Franc CME Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Mexican Peso CME Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The red line below price is the 1 week change in speculative and commercial positioning (net speculative change – net commercial change). An extremely low value indicates heavy speculative selling and heavy commercial buying. This condition warns of downside capitulation in price and therefore a price low. The blue dots indicate weeks when the change in positions was as extreme as now. Notice how these readings (except for one in December 2004, which is highlighted) have occurred near price lows.

Silver COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Copper COMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Crude Oil NYMEX Continuous Contract

COT-Extreme Changes in Gold and Crude Positioning

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The red line below price is the 1 week change in speculative and commercial positioning (net speculative change – net commercial change). An extremely HIGH value indicates heavy speculative buying and heavy commercial selling. This condition warns of upside capitulation in price and therefore a price peak. The red dots indicate weeks when the change in positions was as extreme as now. The only other reading on par with the current reading since 2001 occurred in May (near a top).

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market and co-founder of SB Trade Desk.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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